Pokémon’s 30th anniversary celebration is getting started with the reveal of the first anniversary product: the First Partner Illustration Collection boxes.
This box is being released in 3 "series" versions, with the 1st series dropping on Mar 30th as announced on PokéBeach.
This is a great product that delivers on what Pokémon does best during these celebratory years: nostalgia.
Each box includes illustration rare promos of starter Pokémon with nostalgic artwork that references iconic locations and items from each region. The inclusion of video game references within the art is a nice touch: it’s impossible not to be excited about these cards when you grew up playing the games.
Images of the Kanto starter promo cards that can be found within the First Partner Illustration Collection box product.
But, even more, the promos are distributed through a special booster pack within the product, so you don’t know which set of 3 starters you’re going to get with each box. I think this is a fun way to distribute the promos, and I expect collectors are going to love it as well.
The problem?
These boxes will be hard to find at release, and will sell for a premium.
We know how much Pokémon has struggled to print enough cards, and I've talked about how I don't expect this to change until the new printing facilities come online later this year (or even next year).
I’d love to see Pokémon surprise us with a tidal wave of product when this box releases, but it isn't realistic. Instead, we need to be prepared for more of the same:
Limited availability, high secondary market prices, and a lot of frustration.
Fortunately, after more than a year of the boom phase, we're all experts at this, right? We just need to practice patience, and wait for a better opportunity to buy.
History gives us some clues too: the 30th anniversary is starting to feel a lot like the 25th anniversary in 2021.
Back then, Pokémon released a similar style of product that prominently featured the starter Pokémon from all generations: the First Partner Packs. Each pack included the jumbo promo cards featuring the first-ever printed card for each generation's starters, plus some additional booster packs.
Image of the Kanto First Partner Pack, and the jumbo promo cards within it, from Pokémon’s 25th anniversary product line in 2021.
These were a fun product, but they became completely overshadowed by the anniversary special set, Celebrations, when it dropped later in October 2021, and First Partner Packs became cheap and widely available.
Celebrations then followed a similar arc, launching into extreme hype and high prices, before reprints through the rest of the year and into 2022 made Celebrations products similarly cheap and widely available.
Eventually, all the 25th anniversary products became cheap. And I think we should expect the same with the 30th anniversary products.
Pokedata.io price history for the Celebrations ETB product, showing market low prices near MSRP within the months following the set’s release.
The risk today is that, at least right now, we know Pokémon is unable to print enough supply. At least, until their new printing facilities come online.
But, it will take time to set up the new printing facilities, and for the product they prints to hit the market.
My best guess is that the first new product from these facilities will hit the market at the end of 2026. When it does, I think it's likely we see that new capacity directed towards reprinting 30th anniversary product to help get prices under control and product in the hands of fans.
In the meantime, the restriced supply of these predicts risks lulling many collectors and investors into thinking no new supply is coming. If they choose to buy large amounts of product based on this assessment, they will get burned.
I’m sure you’re all tired of hearing me say this, but it continues to be true: making aggressive buys during the boom phase of the market is risky. Pokémon has a history of responding to the boom phase with huge reprints that crash the market. Until those reprints come, we have no choice but to wait.
I’m still hoping these First Partner Illustration Collection boxes don’t get too pricey because I’m eager to try and collect all the promos. I’m sure I’ll overpay for a couple boxes. But, before making any larger purchases, I’m going to be patient and look for a deal. And I’m going to wait to see what other surprises Pokémon has in store for us in this 30th anniversary year.
It’s possible that the announcement of the year’s anniversary special set completely overshadows this earlier first partner product yet again…
As usual,
Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻