Why the Pokémon Boom Won’t End in 2026 (And What Will Finally Kill It)

One year ago, I predicted the Pokémon boom would end in December of 2025.

And yet, today, in January of 2026, vintage cards are hitting record auction prices and all kinds of modern sealed product are beginning to rise again.

I was wrong: we are still in the boom phase of the collectibles cycle.

But why I was wrong reveals something important about the current market, and gives us clues about what to expect throughout 2026.

And so, these are my predictions for the Pokémon market in 2026.

Since 2016, the Pokémon market has been locked in a cyclical pattern of booms and busts that have kicked off every 4 years.

In 2016, the boom began as millions of people discovered (and rediscovered) their love of Pokémon when Pokémon GO swept the world. This renewed attention on Pokémon drew many to the TCG, kicking off the first true Pokémon TCG boom in years.

It didn't hurt that 2016 happened to be Pokémon's 20th anniversary year, and that The Pokémon Company International (TPCi) had a banger set planned to celebrate: XY Evolutions.

This set included reprints of many popular Base Set cards, featuring not just the original artwork, but also the card frame and designs. It was perfect set to capture the Pokémon GO nostalgia.

At release, XY Evolutions was a popular set. But, if you know the story, you know what happened next...

In an effort to meet the demand, TPCi printed XY Evolutions in enormous quantities, and collectors grew tired of seeing the product everywhere and at such low prices. XY Evolutions became a joke; the perfect example of a failed set. An impression that was created by nothing more than the oversupply of product.

And, this oversupply put an end to the booming market. Prices for all kinds of products corrected and stayed low for years.

At least, until 2020, when the Pokémon market boomed again.

This time, the boom was driven by a wave of nostalgia triggered by the pandemic. It turns out: Pokémon was the perfect pandemic hobby.

And, with the rise in Pokémon's popularity, so rose the prices and the hype. Product remained scarce, until TPCi was finally able to release some substantial reprint waves that pushed popular new releases like Chilling Reign and Fusion strike from above-MSRP to as low as $79.99 a booster box, around November and December of 2021.

Like last time, this correction quickly put an end to the boom phase, one year after the boom kicked off.

This is the lesson from Pokémon's history:

During a boom, TPCi will increase supply to meet demand, and will end the boom in the process.

In my original prediction, I proposed that it would likely take about 1 year for this new supply to hit, because that was how long it took in 2020.

But we haven't seen this increase in supply yet.

Why not?

Over the past year, there have been two theories for why TPCi hasn't increased supply more.

The first theory was that they had learned from their past mistakes, where dramatic increase in supply crashed the market, and were now practicing more constraint with supply to protect the market.

The second theory was that they were already printing at maximum capacity and simply could not print more.

Late last year, I was starting to believe the first theory: maybe TPCi was really changing their printing strategy...

But, then it was announced that Millennium Print Group (MPG) - TPCi's wholly owned printing company - had secured leases for a massive new printing facility.

The news left me with no other conclusion...

The scale of this increased production space, nearly doubling the company’s facilities to an enormous 2,800,000 square feet, suggests they are overdue for more production capacity.

It means they cannot print enough cards without the new space.

This, to me, is the most likely explanation.

Assuming it's true, this means we will not see any significant increases in Pokémon card supply until this new space comes online. And it won’t be fast: my speculative guess is that it will take at least another year before we see an increase in supply created by these new facilities.

Without any new supply hitting the market in 2026, my prediction is that 2026 will be more of the same: high prices, limited availability, and a lot of frustration.

There’s always the chance that, without any changes to supply, demand for Pokémon cards could drop off organically and trigger the market correction.

But, do we really think that’s likely?

Pokémon continues to produce some of the best sets, with the most exciting chase cards, the hobby has ever seen. With 2026 representing the 30th anniversary of Pokémon, we have to assume TCPi has some incredible celebratory releases that will force even the most exhausted collectors to hop back into the Pokémon Center queue.

Alongside the excitement of the 30th anniversary, we’re also seeing more and more vintage cards hit record sales. Finally, after an entire year of the modern market booming, the market for vintage Pokémon is also joining in.

As I write this, Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator card has a winning bid of $4,800,000, totalling a record $5,952,000 with the buyer’s premium. Regardless of my feelings about Logan or this card, that is a remarkable price (assuming the winner pays when the action concludes).

The success of vintage cards are likely to draw even more on-going attention to the hobby, lifting all categories (including modern) with it.

In my opinion, rising prices are the only true catalyst for the Pokémon market. The rising prices for vintage Pokémon cards are likely to snowball attention onto all kinds of Pokémon TCG products, and reinforce the continuing growth of the modern market, and everything inbetween.

At least, until the inevitable flood of reprints hit as soon as TCPi is able to deliver it…

In this kind of market, I no longer see any other way to end the boom.

Along the way, I’m still waiting to see Japanese Pokémon cards enter their own boom phase. Although 2026 feels too soon, since the last Japanese boom was in 2023, given all of the factors we’ve discussed it would not surprise me to see the attention finally overflow from vintage and modern English into the Japanese market.

Over the past year, we’ve already seen prices for Japanese sets like 151 and Eevee Heroes grow steadily. Japanese 151 booster boxes, in particular, have seen a nearly 3x rise from their all-time-low prices around $65 to $181 according to Pokédata.io.

This is exactly the kind of price momentum we’ve already talked about being the true catalyst for the markets.

The boom phase is a great opportunity, but it comes with risk.

And, perhaps even more risk than usual in 2026.

We know TPCi has a history of printing (and reprinting) sets to oblivion in response to a booming market. And, to date, they‘ve been constrained by the limited production space. They have, so far, been unable to ramp up supply to adquately meet demand.

But, this is what makes the massive expansion of MPG so dangerous.

The 1,200,000 square foot expansion represents a 75% increase on top of their existing 1,600,000 square feet. Should TPCi decide to dedicate all of that new production capacity to Pokémon TCG, the wave of new supply could be unprecedented.

And the correction could be devastating. When it finally arrives…

As I’ve discussed: it is unlikely we see much of the new supply until the very end of 2026, and maybe later. But, the awareness of these possible reprints needs to form the foundation of our strategy in 2026.

Based on this analysis, here's how I'm thinking about Pokémon in 2026.

For starters, if we start hitting new all-time-high prices on the products I hold as an investment, I will consider selling into the hype again. An on-going boom will continue to be a strong selling opportunity for anyone who has built their positions over the past few years.

As a buyer, the decisions aren't so clear.

Since it will take some time for the new printing capacity to hit the market, I suspect the best sets released over the next year will be the top candidates for reprints when they finally come. Sets like Ascended Heroes, and whatever special set TPCi has planned for the 30th anniversary prime reprint targets.

There may be times during the year when it will be tempting to build a larger position in these sets. Assuming the market price is still high, I think that will be too risky.

Instead, I plan to buy some products to open from whatever sets I’m excited about over the new year. I want to participate as a collector again (and, dare I say it: a player?)

But, to invest in English product, I’ll want to see a much larger correction - one I’m not expecting to see in 2026.

On the Japanese side, I’m waiting to see if my favorite sets go on sale. Mega Dream ex is a strong candidate if the price continues to fall throughout the year. The same goes for The Glory of Team Rocket, and new releases throughout 2026.

Because I prefer to buy at low price points, I don’t know what opportunities I’ll get, if any, to build positions in 2026. My plan is to stay patient, avoid FOMO, and be ok missing out if I don’t like market prices.

These are my predictions and thinking heading into what is sure to be an exciting year of Pokémon card collecting and investing.

Hopefully it helps you too.

As usual,

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. I usually aim to release my weekly newsletter on Tuesdays and you should continue to expect that date. This edition (and some of my other recent posts) were delayed a bit, but I don’t intend to make that the norm. I don’t know if anyone noticed but I certainly did and wanted to clear up any confusion. Thanks as always for your trust and patience!