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Series 2 of the popular First Partner Illustration Collection boxes have been revealed, and the promos look great (check them out in detail on PokéBeach):
Images of all promos available from the First Partner Illustration Collection Series 2 boxes.
But, is this a better product than the previous Series 1 release?
Series 1 dropped on March 30th, while Series 2 is coming on June 19th. Both feature just 2 booster packs plus a promo pack that contains 3 additional promo cards.
All for an MSRP price of only $14.99. Nice 👌
The problem is that these boxes were never going to sell for MSRP: the price history on pokedata.io shows the Series 1 box has traded for between $50 and $60 USD since its release.
Price data from pokedata.io for the First Partner Illustration Collection Series 1 box.
These high prices aren't a surprise: when I wrote about the Series 1 release back in February of this year, I was quick to point out that "These boxes will be hard to find at release, and will sell for a premium." This is simply the reality of our current market.
With Series 2 now revealed, the question is: what should we expect for it's prices, and what the impact on the Series 1 boxes will be.
I can't predict the future, but I'm going to explore this idea anyway.
Starting with the basics: we continue to be in the Boom phase of the Collectibles Cycle. Demand is extremely high, and not a single modern release has been able to meet it. Hell, even bad sets, like Perfect Order, are scarce and selling for a premium.
There is no doubt the Series 2 boxes will also sell at a premium (RIP the $14.99 MSRP dream).
To guess how much of a premium, we need to consider both the supply and the desirability of the Series 2 product.
Starting with supply: I believe a reasonable guess is that the supply will be the same as Series 1. There is no indication that The Pokémon Company International (TPCi) has increased their printing capacity, nor can I find any reason to believe they'd choose to allocate more printing capacity to the 2nd iteration of this product.
So, if we assume no change in supply between releases, the sole driver of different prices will be their desirability.
And, here, the analysis is pretty simple.
Each of these boxes only contain 2 booster packs, plus the promo pack that contains a set of 3 starters from one of 3 generations.
Series 1 promos include the Kanto starters, while Series 2 includes Johto starters. Both are strong, but Kanto takes the win. I'm not convinced the other generations matter in this comparison.
Interestingly, the pack selection was also quite strong for Series 1: Mega Evolutions and Phantasmal Flames. Both very popular sets with Mega Evolutions booster boxes selling for $330+ and Phantasmal Flames selling for more than $450.
Price data from pokedata.io for the Phantasmal Flames booster box.
Series 2, meanwhile, makes a hard pivot into low desirability sets: Perfect Order and Chaos Rising.
In the end, with lower desirability promos and booster packs, I expect Series 2 booster boxes to trade for less than the Series 1 counterpart. But maybe not as much lower as you might expect...
One of the strongest forces in the collectibles world is the idea of collectible subsets. And the promos from each of these releases, with their similar themes and styling, are a very collectible subset. Anyone who collected the promo set from Series 1 is likely to want to continue collecting Series 2 and Series 3 as they release.
I expect the collecting demand to stay strong, and keep box prices relatively high. Only time will tell, but $40+ would not surprise me.
What about Series 1? With the release of Series 2 will the hype (and therefore, demand) drop for Series 1, helping collectors secure this product at a more reasonable price?
No way.
The demand from collectibility drives both ways: many collectors who bought Series 1 will want Series 2, and many collectors who start by buying Series 2 will want to expand their collection by buying Series 1.
Without a significant reprint, the prices for Series 1 boxes will stay high, and will rise over time.
These are simple products, which make it easy to compare and speculate on. I hope the exercise has been helpful: I've been iterating on my framework for evaluating collectibles and the core of Supply and Desirability is starting to feel useful.
Let me know what you think about these products and my analysis.
And, as always...
Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
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