We all change over time.
Both as people, and as collectors.
You know this is true: look at how much you've changed to get to where you are today.
And yet, despite the evidence, we have a tendency to believe we're done changing. We treat the way we are today as our final destination and routinely underestimate how much we'll continue to change in the future.
This is known as the End of History Illusion: a cognitive bias where people believe they’ve changed a lot up to now, but will change very little in the future.
Morgan Housel, the author of the international best-selling book The Psychology of Money, explains that the the End of History Illusion creates one of the biggest risks to any long-term investor. We know the market performs over the long-term, but it's challenging to maintain our conviction (and our positions) through the inevitable changes of life.
This risk is even greater to collectors.
An index fund investor who loses interest in markets can still hold passively. There's no 'engagement' needed. A collector who loses interest in Pokémon has a much harder time holding, because the motivation to stay informed, make good decisions, and resist selling pressure is partially powered by their passion.
Life changes, like getting a new job, moving, or starting a family, also influence our collecting. These changes don't just change your financial situation. They change how much mental and physical space you're willing to dedicate to a collection.
It wasn't that long ago I considered myself a collector of Pokémon Center ETBs. Beginning with the Scarlet & Violet era, I routinely pre-ordered a case of 4 PC ETBs with every new set release. As time went on, and my collection of PC ETBs grew, it became an important part of my collecting identity.
At least, until the market boomed and I was unable to get some PC ETBs for MSRP. I still have holes in my PC ETB collection, and the question is whether I fill them at secondary market prices or abandon this collecting identity entirely.
Along the way, I've moved, got a dog, and have started to question how much space I actually want to give to my PC ETB collection. Maybe I should just sell them all and move on?
I have changed, and my collecting goals have changed with it.
The question is how you protect yourself by maintaining a long-term perspective despite the inevitable changes.
For me, understanding the Collectibles Cycle is an essential: knowing that the cyclical pattern of the market has led to high prices for Pokémon cards over the long-term is great motivation to stick to the hobby.
But, beyond that, we all need to find our own personal reasons to stick it out. This may not feel relevant today, but given the inevitability of change, you never know when it will.
As usual,
Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. I’m travelling right now which caused me to miss the Chaos Rising PC ETB drop, so this idea felt particularly meaningful. Let me know if it connected with you as well! Oh, there’s also no stream this week since I’m out of the country 😅