Destined Rivals reprints are hitting the market, decimating the value of the set.
Just look at the ETBs which, prior to reprints, were selling for $200 USD or more. Over the past 3 months, those prices have crashed 40%, nearly halving the previous all-time-high prices to settle at $120 USD.
TCG Player 3-month price data for Destined Rivals ETBs, showing a significant decline with a high sales volume.
Booster boxes have also seen a significant decrease in prices, falling from a high around $640 USD down to about $415 today: a 35% drop.
TCG Player 3-month price data for Destined Rivals booster boxes, showing a significant decline with a high sales volume in recent weeks.
The reaction to these falling prices has been dramatic: Flippers who had previously stockpiled Destined Rivals products have begun to flood the market, attempting to capture what value they can before prices crash further. This flood of supply has, ironically, only accelerated the crash.
For anyone who has been in the Pokémon market for more than 4 years, this kind of supply shock is nothing new. The Pokémon Company has always responded to booming markets by ramping up production and reprinting impacted sets.
And these reprints have almost always caused a crash in the market. At minimum, they crash the market for the reprinted products. At maximum... they bring down the entire Pokémon market with them.
The question with these Destined Rivals reprints: Are these reprints significant enough to bring down the entire Pokémon market?
Here's how I see it playing out:
If the Destined Rivals reprints are going to end the Boom Phase and bring about the Correction Phase of the Pokémon market, it means today's demand is extremely fragile. Fragile demand occurs when a significant portion of the market's demand is made up of short-term opportunities who are accumulating product solely because it is appreciating in value.
Demand that needs short-term price appreciation is fragile because they don't need prices to drop to cause them to sell, they just need the pace of price growth to slow. The market can still be growing and these short-term opportunists will start to panic sell.
It looks like this kind of panic selling has already begun for Destined Rivals products.
But, despite the selling, prices for Destined Rivals products remain high: Both the ETBs and Booster Boxes are selling on secondary markets for more than double MSRP. So, yes, there has been a repricing of these products, but we don’t see prices this high for products that are barely only 1 year old. The demand is still strong!
To me, this suggests the price moves have not caused demand to fall enough to trigger the Correction Phase. Instead, this is a short-term market test, and there will need to be significantly more new supply to truly trigger a crash.
The next test will be the upcoming Pokémon releases, and what supply The Pokémon Company has been able to print for them. The 30th Celebration and Delta Reign sets will teach us a lot about the state of the market.
If supply for these new sets is high, it's possible we do enter the Correction Phase of the market and see prices fall lower. If not, it confirms we're going to need to see significantly more supply before the correction will happen.
Here's what this all means for Destined Rivals:
If demand for Pokémon cards remains strong in the face of the Destined Rivals reprints and the upcoming Pokémon set releases, today's Destined Rivals prices are likely a great buy.
If demand crumbles under the supply of the Destined Rivals reprints, 30th Celebration, and Delta Reign launches, prices for Destined Rivals could fall further as the Pokémon market tumbles into the Correction Phase.
It really does feel like we're approaching a key inflection point and, in the short-term, the direction of the market is uncertain.
But, I think it’s important to remember that, over the long-term, history tells us not to worry so much. Most modern sets, 5 to 10 years after they release, sell for much more than 2x MSRP. Assuming demand for Pokémon cards remains strong over the next decade, I don't think we'll care that much whether we paid MSRP or 2x MSRP for a great set like Destined Rivals.
We should all try to get the most from our hard-earned collecting dollars. But, sometimes, I think we all have a tendency to over-analyze the market. I know I do.
As usual,
Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club Newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. Future newsletter editions should be returning to Tuesdays going forward. Over the past 2 weeks, I got busy and ended up needing some extra time to get the weekly newsletter done, but this weekly timing isn't my goal (unless, of course, you all prefer it??) Thanks, as always, for your patience and taking the time to read!
P.P.S. Are you buying Destined Rivals at these prices? I have not yet but I am keeping an eye on it and considering making a move. Let me know what you’re thinking!