Ascended Heroes has been out for 3 months, and has established itself as the latest hot set.
For good reason: it’s packed with bangers.
The top chase cards from Ascended Heroes, and their high prices on TCG Player.
Not surprisingly, those premium chase cards have forced a premium on set's sealed product. Standard Elite Trainer Boxes are selling on TCG Player for $155 USD, more than 3 times the $50 USD MSRP price.
TCG Player price graph for Ascended Heroes over the past 3 months.
Ascended Heroes burst onto the scene around $158 USD before steadily falling over the month that followed to bottom around $105 USD. Since then, the price has turned aggressively upwards back to today's $155 price.
If you've been patient, waiting for a more significant drop in price, have you missed your opportunity?
Here's my take.
This price pattern, in the first few months after a release, is not uncommon:
High prices at release quickly drop as the full initial supply hit the market.
If demand remains higher than the initial supply can satisfy, the prices rapidly rise again.
For an excellent set that releases into the Boom Phase, this pattern isn't surprising.
In fact, a similar pattern occurred for Prismatic Evolutions ETBs, which also released into the boom, saw high release prices, a quick drop, and subsequent rise, all within the first 3 months of release.
Pokedata.io price history for Prismatic Evolutions ETBs, showing a similar pattern to Ascended Heroes in the first 3 months of release.
But, it only took another 3 months, about 6 months after release, for Prismatic Evolutions ETBs to fall again to their all-time lows.
So: patience won out.
And, while not guaranteed, I believe this is a likely path for Ascended Heroes as well.
Here's why:
Even the best releases lose hype after release.
The market is always drawn to the shiny new thing and, as new sets are released (even when they’ve just been announced…), we should expect to see the prices for Ascended Heroes to settle. Obviously: Perfect Order did not have this effect on Ascended Heroes. As a disappointing release, it likely drove even more demand for Ascended Heroes as collectors choose to spend their collecting dollars buying more Ascended Heroes instead of Perfect Order. However, I expect the 30th Celebration set to make a significant splash in the market as we learn more about it...
New products from the set hit the market.
This week, both the Ascended Heroes Booster Bundle and Mega ex Boxes are dropping which will flood the market with packs. Although new product releases tend to not be as impactful as a reprint of the ETBs themselves, these releases should still reduce the market price of ETBs as collectors looking to rip packs receive new supply. For example: the release of new Prismatic Evolutions products (including the Booster Bundles) in 3-4 months after its release helped drive the all-time low price after 6 months.
Reprints.
Prismatic Evolutions has been heavily reprinted, which has helped stabilize product prices. Often, these reprints are effective at dramatically lowering prices, as they did for Crown Zenith, but during the Boom Phase, if demand remains high, prices might only stabilize before continuing to rise.
Pokedata.io price history for Crown Zenith ETBs, which hit their all-time low more than 1 year after release following some considerable reprints.
In the short term, I believe the prices of Ascended Heroes are likely to reach a new low, giving us a new entry point into the set. Because of this, I'm not currently buying and am choosing to wait.
But, over the next year, I have less certainty. For one: I expect the market to enter the Correction Phase of the Collectibles Cycle eventually and, if that happens, we will see a dramatic repricing of all modern Pokémon products, including Ascended Heroes. It's possible Ascended Heroes finds its all-time low price after that correction.
Additionally, we know The Pokémon Company International (TPCi) is expanding its North American printing operation. When these facilities finally come online, I expect TPCi to reprint popular sets. Ascended Heroes is likely a top candidate.
The problem is, we continue to be in a market boom of unprecedented length. The best entry point for Prismatic Evolutions was 6 months after its release, after which the prices have only gone up. If the boom continues for long enough, it’s possible Acended Heroes behaves similarly.
But here's the good news: over the long-term (5-10 years), Ascended Heroes is likely to perform very well. It's a strong set with a variety of great chase cards. Regardless of the short-term prices action, I expect we'll be looking at far higher ETB prices years in the future, not unlike Crown Zenith, Celebrations, and the many more special sets that have come before it.
So, if you believe in the set, you just need to look for a reasonable entry point, and let time do the rest.
When I finally buy I'll be sure to let you know 🫡
As usual,
Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. I plan to return with a livestream next week and will announce the date and time in next week's newsletter!