Despite widespread reports, there is no proof that 30th Celebration products have been overprinted by The Pokémon Company International (TPCi).
Even Dexerto picked up on this news, running the headline:
Pokémon resellers fuming as “generous” 30th anniversary rare card hits keep prices down
But I don't care what these viral social posts are saying: I don't believe them. If anything, it's clear the 30th Celebration set has been underprinted...
Let's look at the evidence:
On TCG Player, 30th Celebration ETBs are holding strong at nearly $180 USD, 3.6x the MSRP price of $49.99. And collectors are buying them at this price. In fact, TCG Player has logged nearly 1,000 sales in the last few days alone.
TCG Player price history for 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Boxes, showing a market price of $177.96 and high sales volume in the says since the product released.
Compare that to Pitch Black ETBs which, a couple days after release, had closer to 400 ETB sales on TCG Player.
On eBay, the results are very similar: There are tons of ended listings selling for $150 to $180 an ETB.
Example sales for 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Boxes on eBay showing sales between $160 and $190 USD.
Look, I too want to believe that the supply of 30th Celebration products is through the roof, that the scalpers are going to bail, and that prices will crash to earth. But we can't ignore the evidence.
Because, since when is 3.6x MSRP "keeping prices down"?!
When secondary market prices fall closer to MSRP, we can actually say that supply is catching demand.
That's a high bar, but here's how TPCi might actually pull it off.
This is only the first wave of the 30th Celebration release, with many more releases to come between now and last drop on December 4th. This means there are plenty of fresh, 30th Celebration packs that are yet to hit the market.
If TPCi can maintain larger print runs for each new release, and squeeze in a reprint or two along the way, it's possible these mounting waves of supply do finally meet demand in the months that follow.
It wouldn't be the first time: This is exactly what happened with the 25th Celebrations release.
An equally hyped set, Celebrations products were scarce and expensive at release. Over the course of many months of new product releases and reprints, prices fell, and collectors could buy many Celebrations products at or even below MSRP.
Price history on Pokedata.io for 25th Celebrations Elite Trainer Boxes, showing a secondary market price near MSRP within a couple months of the product’s release.
We can hope TPCi will pull it off yet again with 30th Celebrations products, but we can't ignore that, today, they are selling for 3.6x MSRP, with significant sales volume. The "scalper crash out" narrative doesn't line up with the reality of the market.
Until we see the market price fall towards MSRP, don't believe the hype.
As usual,
Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. I’ve only managed to secure my 30th Celebration PC ETB pre-order so far, and I don’t plan to open either of them unless I can get my hands on more. I’ll be waiting for future releases to hopefully find more affordable packs to rip. How about you? If you’ve been ripping share your hits!