The Problem Is: Being Reckless Has Paid

(The link to this week’s livestream is at the bottom of this email.)

As a Pokémon collector over the past year, being reckless has paid.

During that time, any modern English product you bought has been profitable. Products like the Scarlet & Violet 151 ETB, which was selling for around $200 USD a year ago, now has a market price of $609: an easy 3x in only 1 year.

Another example: any late Sword & Shield era booster box. Lost Origins booster boxes, for example, were already approaching $400 USD a year ago, and are now selling for more than $700, nearly a 2x return.

There are many more examples like this.

These returns have been earned despite the fact that, 1 year ago, the market for modern English Pokémon products had already been booming for months. The Scarlet & Violet 151 ETB, for example, had doubled from about $100 USD to $200 USD in the 4 months between December 2024 and April 2025.

That same product then increased another 3x in the year that followed.

Those willing to take on the risk, and buy more 151 ETBs after they had already doubled in price have been rewarded.

So it begs the question: Should I be more reckless with my Pokémon purchases?

Because, instead of doubling down in those early months of the boom, I opted to sit out, bide my time, and to start selling products that had already appreciated.

I documented the outcome of those sales in this video: The TRUTH About Selling Your Pokémon Card Collection.

In hindsight, it's clear that I missed out on the opportunity of throwing even more money into the booming market. But I don't regret it.

My strategy has never been chasing the market's momentum. Instead, it has been to preempt the momentum by buying near the true market lows, and letting time do the rest. This strategy has worked out very well. Both in terms of the value of my portfolio, and my sanity.

The reason is simple: I believe my cautious strategy, based on the Collectibles Cycle, is the best way to ensure I survive and thrive as a Pokémon collector over the long term.

The alternative, unfortunately, can be ugly...

And I know it first hand. I was someone who collected through both the 2020 pandemic boom for English Pokémon, and the 2023 Japanese boom that followed. In both cases, I allowed myself to get swept up in the hype and made some less than stellar purchases.

After buying at market highs, I had no choice but to suffer my losses and ride out the correction. Feeling like a fool for mistiming some significant purchases felt terrible, but I still had enough long-term conviction to stick it out.

Others weren't so lucky.

I've watched collectors go through the same market crash, and end up giving up on the hobby entirely. It's difficult to maintain your passion for a collectible when you get burned by bad purchases.

The loss doesn't have to be permanent to be fatal. Even if those products recover in value over the next few years, many people who bought at peak prices won't be around to see it. The combination of financial pain and the embarrassment of bad timing is enough to make the hobby feel like a mistake. And once it feels like a mistake, many people don't come back.

With my strategy, I'm trying to avoid going through that experience again. And if I'm lucky, I can help some others avoid it too.

This doesn't mean I'm against riskier plays in the Pokémon market: I don't blame anyone for chasing the market's momentum over the past year. Certainly, anyone who bought modern English product a year ago made a good call.

Their risk paid off. For now.

Eventually, the correction phase will come. And you don't want to be caught having just bought at the peak as the market comes tumbling down. We can never know exactly when the correction will come, we just know that it always does.

Choose your risk accordingly.

For me, I choose to be careful with my purchases, even if it means I missed out over the past year. I like the peace of mind I have from the decisions I've made.

I believe this is a strong path to long-term success in the Pokémon hobby.

As usual,

Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. I’m back with another livestream tomorrow, Apr 1st at 7:30 pm EDT where I’ll be getting caught up reviewing both last week’s and this week’s newsletter. Click the link below to set your notification and I’ll see you then!