There's a timeless rule in collectibles that many Pokémon fans are focusing on this year:
The 30 Year Rule.
The rule states: “For the first thirty years of anything’s life, all its value is speculative.”
Or, perhaps more clearly:
For roughly the first thirty years of an object’s life, all of its value is speculative. Only after 30 years does an object's more stable collectible value emerge.
And 2026 is Pokémon's 30 year anniversary: Pokémon has officially reached it’s 30-year milestone.
Most "collectibles" never make it. (*Cough* MetaZoo *cough* Beanie Babies *cough* Labubus... you get the point.) As one of the rare collectibles franchises that actually maintain their popularity for 30 years, the true collectible value of Pokémon cards should finally emerge.
But that's a bunch of bullshit.
The rule was coined by none other that Mr. Harry Rinker himself: the man who originally defined the Collectibles Cycle and inspired so much of what I do. Here's a column written by Mr. Rinker in 2005 where he references his 30 Year Rule.
Another experienced collector, J. W. Courter, elaborates on the 30 Year Rule in this article, where he explains (emphasis mine):
Thirty years allows time for the vast majority of objects to be used, discarded or deteriorate. Also, there has been sufficient amount of buying and selling to establish a steady market by collectors who have become rich enough to buy back their childhood.
So, the 30 Year Rule exists because 30 years is enough time for:
The supply of the object to decrease through use, loss, or deterioration, and
For the people who are nostalgic for the object to grow up and and be able to spend adult money on them.
Of the two, only the 2nd is remarkable. All collectibles will see their supply decrease over time. But not every collectible will inspire nostalgic fans to seek them out, decades later, and bid up the market for the now limited supply.
If you grew up with Beanie Babies, are you buying them today?
But, you are buying Pokémon cards.
That’s why Pokémon cards are one of the rare winners in collectibles: a pop-culture phenomenon that has withstood the test time to become a truly established collectible asset.
Pokémon cards check the boxes for the 30 Year Rule.
So, why is it bullshit?
Because the narrative of the 30 Year Rule, during Pokémon’s 30th anniversary, is nothing more than a convenient narrative to explain (and pump) the market.
But the narrative is late: Pokémon didn’t need 30 years.
Instead, I’d argue Pokémon became an established collectible category in 2021, only 25 years after release. It was 5 years ago, during the pandemic boom, that headline-fetching, record-breaking sales (1st Edition Base Set Charizards for $270,000 USD, 1st Edition Base Set booster boxes for $408,000, modern cards mooning, etc.) drove enormous numbers of nostalgic fans back into the market for Pokémon cards.
The 30 Year Rule already happened after 25 years. The price movement since then has just been the continuation of an established collectible category that is riding yet another wave of hype and attention.
This doesn’t mean the 30 Year Rule is wrong: it’s simply a guideline that encourages caution for any new collectible category that has not yet proven itself over time. MetaZoo is a great cautionary example. And, perhaps, One Piece TCG is today (the game has a great start, but only time will tell if it can survive long enough).
There’s just no question Pokémon has already graduated, and that the 30-year milestone is a negligible point alongside its persistent popularity and established track record as a collectible.
So don’t let the narrative around the 30 Year Rule shape your buying behaviour: the market dynamics haven’t changed. We’re way past becoming an established collectibles category.
As usual,
Thank you for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. I won’t be doing a livestream this week or next week because I am travelling, but I’ll start up again as I return! Don’t worry: the weekly newsletter will continue 💪