It's the Pokémon Boom Market Summer™!
So, why does it feel so bearish? How's everybody holding up?
Over the past month, Pokémon products have trended sideways or down. While the moves have not been dramatic, compared to the rocket ship we've been riding, the lack of rapid growth feels bad.
6-month price history on pokedata.io for 151 ETBs, showing the last few months of flat prices.
Beyond prices, the market lull can be seen in Google Trends data, which shows searches for "Pokémon card" are down. Similarly, the broader "collecting" query is also down.
Google Trends data showing a dip in searches for ‘pokemon card’.
Google Trends data showing a dip in searches for ‘collecting’.
It's fair to say that interest in Pokémon feels down.
But, this is nothing new. A year ago, we saw many Pokémon products trend sideways through the summer: Lost Origin booster boxes, seen below, is just one example. In my opinion, this early summer sentiment is a short-term trend while the market resets following a couple months of growth.
1-year price history on pokedata.io for Lost Origin booster boxes showing last summer’s flat prices.
My thesis continues to be that, until The Pokémon Company can increase production of new products, the demand for modern Pokémon cards will remain strong and product will continue to be scarce and expensive.
None of this changes the simple fact that the negative market sentiment isn't fun. So here's some positivity for you:
If this is, in fact, a couple months of sideways action before the market surges again, our best selling opportunities are yet to come. And,
If I'm wrong, and the market is about to enter the correction phase... well... the buying opportunities will be legendary. Finally, after 1.5 years of surging prices and scarce product, we'll be able to buy Pokémon cards easily and at fair prices again.
The way I see it, we're all along for the ride and, no matter what happens, the long-term collector and investor can find plenty of opportunity in any market environment.
But, let me know how you feel. Are you feeling this negative sentiment, or do you see the market differently?
Reply to this email and let me know.
As usual,
Thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. Have you seen any great Pokémon content lately? Send it my way! I see ever reply to this newsletter.