Try to imagine a set that is so bad, it singlehandedly crashes a booming Pokémon market.
Is that set Chaos Rising?
In a recent video, Rudy from Alpha Investments discussed receiving an offer for 2,300 Chaos Rising ETBs for $55 USD each. That's below the current market price on TCG Player of $72, and half the $110 price this box was getting back in April.
This story appears to be one of many circulating online of people with large positions being liquidated and flooding the market with supply. The market price reinforces this idea: Chaos Rising ETBs and booster boxes have been trending downwards for months.
TCG Player price data for Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Boxes, showing their downward trend over the past 3 months, and a current market price of $72.23 USD.
Chaos Rising also followed another weak set, Perfect Order, but the prices for Perfect Order held up better, until recently. On TCGPlayer, we can see a recent surge of orders that drove Perfect Order booster boxes down $50, from around $225 to $175 USD
TCG Player price data for Perfect Order booster boxes, showing a sudden price crash in recent weeks.
So: is this the beginning of the end of the boom? Did Perfect Order and Chaos Rising really crash the Pokémon market?
Let's be clear about what's actually happening here:
Collectors are not clamouring for these recent sets. Perfect Order and Chaos Rising ain't it, and the demand shows it.
The weakness in two back-to-back set releases is breaking the support Perfect Order previously had: This shows us that the market price was propped up by flippers and scalpers who are suddenly panic selling or being forced to liquidate.
In any booming market, prices are inevitably supported by speculators, flippers, and scalpers. By chasing profit, these short-term opportunists create a new layer of demand, as long as they can continue to resell product for a profit within a couple months of buying.
Today, prices are finally going down, causing short-term profit to disappear and scalpers to sell at a loss. If these opportunists decide to leave the market entirely (or, are forced to due to leverage), this will reduce the overall market demand.
It's possible this reduction in demand snowballs into a correction.
However, I think its unlikely. Here's why:
There have always been weaker sets in Pokémon, and the market has still grown, and
There are a lot of great sets to look forward to.
Starting with #1: This is not the first time Pokemon has released a string of weaker sets. And, during an otherwise booming market, we've seen it take more than a few weak sets to break the momentum.
In my time collecting Pokemon, I'm reminded of the Sword & Shield era's terrible string of early releases, namely:
Rebel Clash, into
Darkness Ablaze, into
Champion's Path.
These were uninspired sets, with "Rebel Trash", as it was known, earning the title of "worst set of the Sword & Shield era". Meanwhile, the Champion's Path special set was a mess of random cards, saved only by its inclusion of a shiny Charizard, plus a rainbow rare Charizard VMAX that was otherwise excluded from Darkness Ablaze.
By the time Vivid Voltage was released, right after Champion's Path, the market was in a booming frenzy that lasted for a whole other year.
That boom included the release of Chilling Reign, Evolving Skies, Fusion Strike, Brilliant Stars, and the 25th anniversary set: Celebrations. The market ate it all up.
Personally, I don't think Chaos Rising is that bad a set. The Greninja IR/SIR line, in particular, is beautiful, and there are many great looking cards in the set, even if the Pokémon being featured are lower tier picks.
The Mega Greninja ex evolution line from Chaos Rising, all illustrated by Susumu Maeya.
And, Pitch Black, which just released, is another solid set with some cool Pokémon and great art.
But, perhaps the main reason I don't think the boom is ending is #2: as Pokémon card fans, we have a lot to look forward to.
The 30th anniversary set, 30th Celebration, has a lot of hype. A LOT. And the initial product drops on the Pokémon Center have been getting a lot of attention. With a set like this on the horizon: how many collectors do you think have chosen not to buy Perfect Order and Chaos Rising so they can save up to buy more 30th Celebration?
An example 30th Celebration product: the “night” themed Ultra Premium Collection box.
And, there's more:
We also have the upcoming Delta Reign set to look forward to, which is featuring Mega Rayquaza ex. There hasn't been a Rayquaza-centered set since Evolving Skies and we all know how that went. Rayquaza is a popular Pokémon, and Mega Rayquaza is a popular mega evolution. This is a strong theme with great potential.
A teaser image released by The Pokémon Company International for the upcoming Delta Reign set, featuring Mega Rayquaza ex.
And...
We still have the end-of-year High Class Pack set from Japan, that will likely be released as an English special set sometime late January or early February. These are the fan favorite sets like Crown Zenith (from VSTAR Universe) Paldean Fates (from Shiny Treasure ex), and Prismatic Evolutions (from Terastal Festival).
These High Class Pack sets are always one of the best releases of the year, and the market knows it's coming.
So, as of today, the market is cooling off a bit. I just don't think this is the end of the boom: there's too many great Pokémon sets to look forward to for the rest of the year. A couple mid-tier sets isn't the beginning of the end, it's just a short reset before hype continues.
At least, that's how I'm reading the current market.
As usual, thanks so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I'm on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.
Cheers 🍻
P.S. Tomorrow is my birthday! That is all 🤣